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Trading Scenarios



Have I started to Trade yet? 

Not in the true meaning of the word. 

If  you  have  BACKED  a  horse  to  WIN  you  have  done  nothing  more  than  use  a  Betting 

Exchange as you would a traditional Bookmaker, although it will probably be at better odds. 

If you have LAYED a horse to LOSE then you have become a Bookmaker. 

This  manual  aims  to  bring  BACKING  &  LAYING  together,  to  generate  “No  Lose”  and 

"Guaranteed Profit” situations. This may be done in the following ways: 

·  Buy Odds as Low as possible and then Sell those Odds at a Higher Value 

·  Sell Odds at a High Value and  then Buy  those Odds at a Lower Value (this  is equivalent 

to the futures market where a Futures Trader will sell something at a certain price, hoping 

that when he comes to buy, the price is below his selling price). 

Buying Odds is the same as LAYING. 

Selling Odds is the same as BACKING. 

How is this done? 

Over  the  next  few  chapters  I will  go  through  a  number  of Trading  scenarios where  you will 

learn how to: 

1.  BACK first, then LAY for Guaranteed Profit Target 

2.  BACK first, then LAY to produce a No­Lose situation if horse WINS, and a Profit Target 

if horse LOSES 

3.  BACK  first,  then  LAY  to  produce  a  No­Lose  situation  if  horse  LOSES,  and  a  Profit 

Target if horse WINS 

4.  LAY first, then BACK for Guaranteed Profit Target 

5.  LAY first, then BACK to produce a No­Lose situation if horse WINS, and a Profit Target 

if horse LOSES 

6.  LAY  first,  then  BACK  to  produce  a  No­Lose  situation  if  horse  LOSES,  and  a  Profit 

Target if horse WINS 


The above scenarios will show you how to place your original BACK or LAY bet, and  how to 

calculate  the Odds  and  Stake  required  for  an  opposing  BACK  or LAY  bet,  to  achieve  a  set 

Profit Target or a No­Lose situation. 

An alternative to the above  is  to determine what profits could be made at any moment  in  time 

after  placing  your  original BACK  or LAY  bet. You may  not wish  to  set  a Profit Target. For 

example, you may place a BACK BET with the anticipation that LAY ODDS will decrease to a 

suitable  level  below  that at which  you accepted  the BACK ODDS. You  intend  to monitor  the 

LAY ODDS because you are not sure how they are going to behave, and at any moment in time 

you  may  wish  to  calculate  what  Guaranteed  Profit,  if  any,  is  achievable  using  the  currently 

displayed LAY ODDS. 

Two additional scenarios are therefore: 

7.  BACK  first,  then  determine  what  Guaranteed  Profit,  if  any,  is  achievable  using  the 

currently displayed LAY ODDS 

8.  LAY first, then determine what Guaranteed Profit, if any, is achievable using the currently 

displayed BACK ODDS 

I must  confess  that  I  do  cheat  a  little  with my  calculations—I  use  a 


If you have use of a spreadsheet you can  find  the  layout and  formulae 

for each scenario at the back of this manual. 



Although  the  chapters  explaining  each  scenario may  appe

each in turn to satisfy yourself that you understand the prin

when you don’t know whether you are coming or going. If t

read again. It is important to establish which side of the bett

any given moment. It may appear obvious, but you must not 

you intended to be BACKING, and visa versa and always b

are probably a  lot of users of  the Betting Exchanges who 

time,  little  realising  the  payout  they  will  have  to make  if 

contestant on which they have placed a LAY bet wins”.





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